PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 3:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 20 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Malady · 19 games
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 16 games
Kezsignature
Watson · 16 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 16 games
Centaur Warrunner
DM · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Saksa · 14 games
Natus Vincere
Hoodwinksignature
Daze · 26 games
Axesignature
pma · 24 games
Rubicksignature
Daze · 24 games
Kezsignature
Niku · 23 games
Underlordsignature
pma · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 16 games
Miranasignature
Riddys · 16 games
Banesignature
Riddys · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
500 picks · 299 bans
Dark Willow
394 picks · 169 bans
Mirana
375 picks · 170 bans
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 493 bans
Centaur Warrunner
311 picks · 310 bans
Winter Wyvern
309 picks · 285 bans
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 492 bans
Undying
277 picks · 358 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 84%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total67% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
Team Yandex 61%Natus Vincere 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 25:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerWatson
Lycanpma
RazorATF
Weavergotthejuice
PangolierChira JUNIOR
InvokerNiku
Dark WillowSaksa
UndyingRiddys
Witch DoctorMalady
ClockwerkDaze
Game 2prediction correct36:31
Team Yandex 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 43:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
IoWatson
Lone Druidgotthejuice
Centaur WarrunnerATF
LinaNiku
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Brewmasterpma
Winter WyvernMalady
HoodwinkDaze
Dark WillowSaksa
BaneRiddys
Game 3prediction correct26:8
Team Yandex 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 27:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenWatson
LinaNiku
HuskarATF
Clinkzgotthejuice
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Winter WyvernMalady
TuskDaze
Dark WillowSaksa
MiranaRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 67%
Series resultTeam Yandex 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3