PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 31 game
Clockwerk
KJ · 22 games
Baneoften banned
KJ · 21 game
Necrophosoften banned
Yuma · 17 games
Windranger
Thiolicor · 17 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Wisper · 15 games
Grimstroke
Thiolicor · 14 games
Pucksignature
TaiLung · 14 games
Natus Vincere
Hoodwinksignature
Daze · 25 games
Axesignature
pma · 24 games
Rubicksignature
Daze · 24 games
Kezsignature
Niku · 23 games
Underlordsignature
pma · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 16 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
Banesignature
Riddys · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
501 picks · 299 bans
Dark Willow
390 picks · 168 bans
Mirana
373 picks · 169 bans
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 492 bans
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 310 bans
Winter Wyvern
307 picks · 284 bans
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 492 bans
Undying
276 picks · 358 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 80%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:27
LGD Gaming 37%Natus Vincere 63%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetWits
Lifestealergotthejuice
Earth SpiritSumaiL
Centaur Warrunnerpma
SlardarDavai
UndyingNiku
Dark WillowThiolicor
MiranaRiddys
DazzleSneyking
TuskDaze
Game 2prediction missed27:22
LGD Gaming 40%Natus Vincere 60%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 49:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerWits
Terrorbladegotthejuice
TimbersawDavai
LinaNiku
PangolierSumaiL
Beastmasterpma
Dark WillowThiolicor
MiranaDaze
Bounty HunterSneyking
BaneRiddys
Game 3prediction correct1:2
LGD Gaming 34%Natus Vincere 66%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 24:27.
Game 4prediction correct22:33
LGD Gaming 39%Natus Vincere 61%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 56:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetWits
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Void SpiritSumaiL
Doompma
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Keeper of the LightNiku
Dark WillowThiolicor
HoodwinkDaze
UndyingSneyking
Winter WyvernRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 66%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4