The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 12 games
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 11 games
Chensignature
Puppey · 10 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
Nisha · 10 games
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Resolut1on · 9 games
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 9 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
708 picks · 556 bans
Dawnbreaker
500 picks · 653 bans
Marci
498 picks · 778 bans
Puck
476 picks · 1002 bans
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 421 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 399 bans
Snapfire
310 picks · 155 bans
Razor
298 picks · 560 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:32
Team Secret 40%Entity 60%
The model gave 60% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 38:50.
Game 2prediction correct14:25
Team Secret 40%Entity 60%
The model gave 60% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 32:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 60%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2