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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 10 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Se · 9 games
44%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Karma丶 · 7 games
14%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ChuaN · 6 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Enryu · 6 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
ChuaN · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Enryu · 6 games
33%

Execration

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 17 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Shanks · 14 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 12 games
42%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Palos · 10 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Palos · 9 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
708 picks · 556 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 655 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
497 picks · 778 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
475 picks · 1001 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 421 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
328 picks · 399 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
310 picks · 155 bans
49%
Razor
Razor
297 picks · 559 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 42%
Hero pool strength61% Execration
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total51% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:31
Neon Esports 47%Execration 53%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 31:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackFortuneSoul
48% · 72 games52% · 52 games
NecrophosPalos
Necrophos
Dark Seer
Dark SeerEnryu
59% · 19 games48% · 122 games
Queen of PainBob
Queen of Pain
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPlayHard
39% · 114 games62% · 71 game
VisageTino-
Visage
Snapfire
SnapfireSe
46% · 205 games47% · 100 games
MarciShanks
Marci
66% · 65 games
UndyingRR
Undying
Game 2prediction missed38:27
Neon Esports 48%Execration 52%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerFortuneSoul
50% · 96 games44% · 60 games
AlchemistPalos
Alchemist
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerEnryu
47% · 137 games51% · 89 games
KunkkaBob
Kunkka
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPlayHard
44% · 80 games51% · 152 games
RazorTino-
Razor
Chen
ChenSe
49% · 79 games65% · 29 games
Elder TitanShanks
Elder Titan
55% · 62 games
UndyingRR
Undying
Game 3prediction missed32:12
Neon Esports 49%Execration 51%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 33:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeFortuneSoul
48% · 49 games55% · 35 games
Faceless VoidPalos
Faceless Void
Lycan
LycanEnryu
60% · 59 games47% · 138 games
PuckBob
Puck
Enchantress
EnchantressSe
50% · 121 game32% · 17 games
Centaur WarrunnerTino-
Centaur Warrunner
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPlayHard
58% · 54 games50% · 43 games
UndyingRR
Undying
42% · 50 games
Nyx AssassinShanks
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 51%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3