The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachwin 2:1series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 18 games
Tinysignature
Ari · 16 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Kidaro · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Supream^ · 11 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 11 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 11 games
Hoodwink
Ari · 10 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 9 games
Water Rune Enjoyers
Phoenixoften banned
b1kA · 22 games
Tiny
Nukkumatti · 21 game
Marcioften banned
Nukkumatti · 16 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 16 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Mary_y · 16 games
Razoroften banned
Palantimos · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BliNcc · 14 games
Visagesignature
BliNcc · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
709 picks · 559 bans
Dawnbreaker
501 picks · 657 bans
Marci
496 picks · 779 bans
Puck
479 picks · 1002 bans
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 421 bans
Zeus
326 picks · 398 bans
Snapfire
313 picks · 155 bans
Razor
297 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:41
Into The Breach 64%Water Rune Enjoyers 36%
The model gave 64% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 1:09:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverOtaker
LunaPalantimos
MorphlingSupream^
ViperBliNcc
Death ProphetXibbe
Storm SpiritStojkov
TinyAri
ChenMary_y
Winter WyvernKidaro
Marcib1kA
Game 2prediction missed27:35
Into The Breach 69%Water Rune Enjoyers 31%
The model gave 69% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 43:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BatriderSupream^
Night StalkerPalantimos
Faceless VoidOtaker
LinaStojkov
VisageXibbe
Death ProphetBliNcc
Crystal MaidenAri
Tinyb1kA
Ancient ApparitionKidaro
BaneMary_y
Game 3prediction correct
Into The Breach 80%Water Rune Enjoyers 20%
The model gave 80% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 80%
Series resultInto The Breach 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3