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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Summit Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 17 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 14 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Shanks · 14 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 12 games
42%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Palos · 10 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Palos · 9 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 9 games
67%

Summit Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
TrazaM · 10 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nj · 10 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Mercury · 9 games
44%
Warlock
Warlock
TrazaM · 9 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nj · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
czy · 7 games
57%
Lion
Lionsignature
czy · 6 games
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Unknown- · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
709 picks · 558 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
501 picks · 656 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
495 picks · 781 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
479 picks · 1002 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 421 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
327 picks · 400 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
313 picks · 154 bans
49%
Razor
Razor
298 picks · 563 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 46%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Summit Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:8
Execration 45%Summit Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Summit Gaming — the game was taken by Execration in 28:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPalos
47% · 57 games50% · 81 game
JuggernautUnknown-
Juggernaut
Razor
RazorTino-
53% · 143 games47% · 213 games
Queen of PainMercury
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderBob
51% · 90 games54% · 112 games
BeastmasterNj
Beastmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonShanks
49% · 81 game43% · 69 games
Earth Spiritczy
Earth Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinRR
58% · 111 games36% · 7 games
Witch DoctorTrazaM
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction missed39:15
Execration 48%Summit Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Summit Gaming — the game was taken by Execration in 31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidPalos
49% · 135 games57% · 152 games
RazorNj
Razor
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainBob
46% · 190 games59% · 125 games
Templar AssassinUnknown-
Templar Assassin
Primal Beast
Primal BeastTino-
50% · 12 games46% · 44 games
WindrangerMercury
Windranger
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritShanks
46% · 76 games50% · 79 games
Marciczy
Marci
Undying
UndyingRR
49% · 81 game49% · 94 games
TuskTrazaM
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteSummit Gaming · 59%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2