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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Brameloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
SumaiL · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 13 games
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 11 games
36%
Io
Iosignature
GH · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 11 games
82%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
SumaiL · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tiny
KuroKy · 9 games
56%
Zeus
Zeussignature
KuroKy · 9 games
67%

Brame

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ThuG · 17 games
65%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
dEsire · 16 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
80%
Tiny
Tiny
W1sh- · 15 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
43%
Viper
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 14 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
SsaSpartan · 11 games
82%
Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
708 picks · 558 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
501 picks · 655 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
495 picks · 781 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
479 picks · 1004 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 421 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
326 picks · 400 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
313 picks · 156 bans
49%
Razor
Razor
299 picks · 563 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:16
Nigma Galaxy 52%Brame 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMiracle-
50% · 64 games59% · 28 games
Shadow FiendNande
Shadow Fiend
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSumaiL
48% · 148 games56% · 46 games
PudgeSkyLark
Pudge
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
48% · 65 games57% · 62 games
PugnaW1sh-
Pugna
Earthshaker
EarthshakerGH
56% · 59 games41% · 108 games
RubickdEsire
Rubick
Chen
ChenKuroKy
51% · 61 game46% · 153 games
MarciSsaSpartan
Marci
Game 2prediction missed23:49
Nigma Galaxy 52%Brame 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Brame in 45:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMiracle-
55% · 124 games32% · 11 games
ClinkzNande
Clinkz
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSumaiL
49% · 202 games48% · 106 games
ViperSkyLark
Viper
Doom
DoomMinD_ContRoL
50% · 112 games46% · 94 games
BatriderW1sh-
Batrider
Chen
ChenKuroKy
52% · 88 games46% · 307 games
TinydEsire
Tiny
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritGH
54% · 66 games56% · 74 games
UndyingSsaSpartan
Undying
Game 3prediction correct57:19
Nigma Galaxy 52%Brame 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperMiracle-
40% · 34 games33% · 5 games
ClinkzNande
Clinkz
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSumaiL
52% · 191 game46% · 98 games
ZeusW1sh-
Zeus
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMinD_ContRoL
51% · 200 games53% · 88 games
EnigmaSkyLark
Enigma
Alchemist
AlchemistKuroKy
48% · 80 games54% · 73 games
Shadow ShamanSsaSpartan
Shadow Shaman
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritGH
52% · 71 game51% · 312 games
TinydEsire
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 54%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3