The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
XERXIAwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
No games played over 6 months.
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
711 picks · 558 bans
Dawnbreaker
500 picks · 655 bans
Marci
497 picks · 781 bans
Puck
482 picks · 1007 bans
Winter Wyvern
368 picks · 423 bans
Zeus
326 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 156 bans
Razor
301 picks · 566 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% XERXIA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:30
Nigma Galaxy SEA 47%XERXIA 53%
The model gave 53% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA in 56:57.
Game 2prediction correct15:31
Nigma Galaxy SEA 47%XERXIA 53%
The model gave 53% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA in 37:12.
Game 3prediction correct32:20
Nigma Galaxy SEA 47%XERXIA 53%
The model gave 53% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA in 45:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteXERXIA · 53%
Series resultXERXIA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3