The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
710 picks · 558 bans
Dawnbreaker
500 picks · 655 bans
Marci
498 picks · 782 bans
Puck
483 picks · 1013 bans
Winter Wyvern
368 picks · 424 bans
Zeus
326 picks · 396 bans
Snapfire
318 picks · 157 bans
Razor
301 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)14% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total86% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:33
Alliance 14%Entity 86%
The model gave 86% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 55:47.
Game 2prediction correct25:27
Alliance 14%Entity 86%
The model gave 86% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 49:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 86%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2