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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Goonsquadwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Goonsquad

No games played over 6 months.

Nigma Galaxy

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
SumaiL · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 13 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 11 games
82%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
SumaiL · 9 games
78%
Io
Iosignature
GH · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tiny
KuroKy · 9 games
56%
Zeus
Zeussignature
KuroKy · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
710 picks · 561 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 655 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
497 picks · 793 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
483 picks · 1023 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 424 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
329 picks · 397 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
324 picks · 157 bans
49%
Razor
Razor
300 picks · 574 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:17
Goonsquad 50%Nigma Galaxy 50%
The model gave 50% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:51.
Game 2prediction correct27:10
Goonsquad 50%Nigma Galaxy 50%
The model gave 50% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:11.
Game 3prediction correct36:35
Goonsquad 50%Nigma Galaxy 50%
The model gave 50% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 50%
Series resultGoonsquad 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3