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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO5
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:3
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Soniqswin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 11 games
82%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
70%
Marci
Marcioften banned
ZfreeK · 9 games
56%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Husky · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Costabile · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 7 games
57%

Soniqs

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
715 picks · 564 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 659 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
494 picks · 795 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
487 picks · 1027 bans
56%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 425 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
329 picks · 397 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
326 picks · 160 bans
48%
Razor
Razor
301 picks · 577 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 31%
Hero pool strength57% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:21
nouns 70%Soniqs 30%
The model gave 70% on nouns — the game was taken by Soniqs in 44:10.
Game 2prediction missed12:47
nouns 70%Soniqs 30%
The model gave 70% on nouns — the game was taken by Soniqs in 43:16.
Game 3prediction missed12:36
nouns 70%Soniqs 30%
The model gave 70% on nouns — the game was taken by Soniqs in 37:37.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 70%
Series resultSoniqs 0:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3