The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO5
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Upwin 3:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
lou · 10 games
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 9 games
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
ELeVeN · 8 games
Linasignature
Paparazi · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
Abaddonsignature
Dy · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
719 picks · 567 bans
Dawnbreaker
500 picks · 661 bans
Puck
494 picks · 1029 bans
Marci
492 picks · 804 bans
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 427 bans
Snapfire
329 picks · 161 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 396 bans
Razor
301 picks · 578 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total53% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:44
Royal Never Give Up 47%Xtreme Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:59.
Game 2prediction correct38:36
Royal Never Give Up 47%Xtreme Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 57:45.
Game 3prediction correct16:35
Royal Never Give Up 47%Xtreme Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 48:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 53%
Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3