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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 10 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
lou · 10 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 9 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 9 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
86%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
43%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Dy · 6 games
83%
Bane
Bane
Dy · 6 games
50%

Vici Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Yds · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tinysignature
poyoyo · 10 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 8 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Victoria · 8 games
25%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 7 games
71%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
poyoyo · 6 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
Frisk · 6 games
67%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yang · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
720 picks · 567 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
501 picks · 661 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
495 picks · 1027 bans
56%
Marci
Marci
490 picks · 806 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 427 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
330 picks · 161 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
329 picks · 396 bans
47%
Razor
Razor
301 picks · 579 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total62% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
Xtreme Gaming 56%Vici Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenlou
49% · 26 games41% · 93 games
Morphlingpoyoyo
Morphling
Death Prophet
Death ProphetPaparazi
53% · 209 games42% · 98 games
Timbersawniu
Timbersaw
Batrider
BatriderELeVeN
59% · 132 games47% · 58 games
ViperXm
Viper
Primal Beast
Primal BeastPyw
59% · 16 games46% · 84 games
MarciFrisk
Marci
Omniknight
OmniknightDy
58% · 29 games44% · 79 games
RubickYang
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct22:5
Xtreme Gaming 57%Vici Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 25:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
Pudgelou
58% · 18 games49% · 131 game
Weaverpoyoyo
Weaver
Lina
LinaPaparazi
50% · 166 games47% · 168 games
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderELeVeN
50% · 85 games50% · 12 games
Primal Beastniu
Primal Beast
Marci
MarciPyw
53% · 81 game49% · 58 games
Nyx AssassinYang
Nyx Assassin
Dazzle
DazzleDy
47% · 43 games54% · 24 games
OracleFrisk
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 62%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2