The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KBU.USloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Snapfire
The Warden · 20 games
Tinysignature
The Warden · 18 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 12 games
Skywrath Magesignature
The Warden · 12 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
719 picks · 567 bans
Dawnbreaker
500 picks · 661 bans
Puck
495 picks · 1026 bans
Marci
490 picks · 804 bans
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 426 bans
Snapfire
329 picks · 161 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 396 bans
Razor
301 picks · 579 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% KBU.US
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:34
Wildcard Gaming 60%KBU.US 40%
The model gave 60% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by KBU.US in 43:47.
Game 2prediction missed16:35
Wildcard Gaming 60%KBU.US 40%
The model gave 60% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by KBU.US in 33:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 60%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2