The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Soniqsloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
nounswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 11 games
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 10 games
Marcioften banned
ZfreeK · 9 games
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Husky · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
Moo · 6 games
Bloodseekersignature
Costabile · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
719 picks · 567 bans
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 661 bans
Puck
495 picks · 1024 bans
Marci
488 picks · 804 bans
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 426 bans
Snapfire
329 picks · 161 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 395 bans
Razor
301 picks · 579 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 65%
Hero pool strength57% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:16
Soniqs 29%nouns 71%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 41:34.
Game 2prediction correct36:20
Soniqs 29%nouns 71%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 45:28.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 71%
Series resultnouns 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2