The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Vici Gaming
Hoodwink
Yds · 10 games
Tinysignature
poyoyo · 10 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 8 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Victoria · 8 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 7 games
Lifestealersignature
poyoyo · 6 games
Razorsignature
Yang · 6 games
Clockwerk
Victoria · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
718 picks · 570 bans
Puck
498 picks · 1021 bans
Dawnbreaker
497 picks · 655 bans
Marci
483 picks · 807 bans
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 427 bans
Snapfire
330 picks · 162 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 395 bans
Razor
301 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:19
CDEC Gaming 33%Vici Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 39:46.
Game 2prediction correct33:14
CDEC Gaming 33%Vici Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 34:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 67%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2