The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KBU.USwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 18 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
Techiessignature
bgod · 10 games
Bane
Overlom · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Jubei · 8 games
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 8 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
718 picks · 570 bans
Puck
498 picks · 1021 bans
Dawnbreaker
497 picks · 655 bans
Marci
483 picks · 807 bans
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 427 bans
Snapfire
330 picks · 162 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 395 bans
Razor
301 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% KBU.US
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:42
The Cut 35%KBU.US 65%
The model gave 65% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 58:34.
Game 2prediction correct32:33
The Cut 35%KBU.US 65%
The model gave 65% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 47:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 65%
Series resultKBU.US 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2