The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Soniqswin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Death Prophetsignature
Speeed · 10 games
Abaddonsignature
albinozebra · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 7 games
Tiny
Giant · 7 games
Clockwerk
albinozebra · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
albinozebra · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Giant · 6 games
Hoodwink
Giant · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
719 picks · 571 bans
Puck
497 picks · 1025 bans
Dawnbreaker
494 picks · 655 bans
Marci
480 picks · 809 bans
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 426 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 162 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 392 bans
Razor
302 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Soniqs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed2:23
Soniqs 66%5RATFORCESTAFF 34%
The model gave 66% on Soniqs — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 25:56.
Game 2prediction missed34:10
Soniqs 66%5RATFORCESTAFF 34%
The model gave 66% on Soniqs — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 42:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteSoniqs · 66%
Series resultSoniqs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2