The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
CDEC Gamingloss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
lou · 10 games
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 9 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
Abaddonsignature
Dy · 6 games
Bane
Dy · 6 games
Visageoften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
722 picks · 570 bans
Puck
502 picks · 1022 bans
Dawnbreaker
494 picks · 656 bans
Marci
480 picks · 814 bans
Winter Wyvern
372 picks · 425 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 162 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 391 bans
Razor
304 picks · 584 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:14
CDEC Gaming 19%Xtreme Gaming 81%
The model gave 81% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:09.
Game 2prediction correct33:17
CDEC Gaming 19%Xtreme Gaming 81%
The model gave 81% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 81%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2