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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Lucky Birdwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDUB Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lucky Bird

Puck
Pucksignature
BlackSoul · 10 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
FrancisLee · 6 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
FrancisLee · 5 games
60%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 4 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Rises · 4 games
50%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
FrancisLee · 4 games
50%

CDUB Esports

Tiny
Tiny
Atoufix · 10 games
30%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 8 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Jubei · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
high_shaggy · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Double King · 5 games
60%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Atoufix · 5 games
20%
Io
Iooften banned
Jubei · 4 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Atoufix · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
720 picks · 572 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
503 picks · 1020 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
493 picks · 654 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
479 picks · 814 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
373 picks · 422 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
331 picks · 163 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
327 picks · 392 bans
47%
Razor
Razor
304 picks · 584 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:20
Lucky Bird 61%CDUB Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 47:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightRises
42% · 35 games45% · 126 games
DawnbreakerDouble King
Dawnbreaker
Zeus
ZeusBlackSoul
53% · 67 gameslittle data
Primal BeastMark
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFrancisLee
54% · 51 game59% · 27 games
ChenAtoufix
Chen
Game 2prediction correct34:14
Lucky Bird 65%CDUB Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaRises
61% · 18 games48% · 31 game
Troll WarlordDouble King
Troll Warlord
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritBlackSoul
54% · 31 gamelittle data
Primal BeastMark
Primal Beast
Earthshaker
EarthshakerFrancisLee
59% · 20 games38% · 38 games
MarciAtoufix
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 72%
Series resultLucky Bird 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2