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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Feltloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team DogChampwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Felt

Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Zore · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tinysignature
AfrOmoush · 9 games
67%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Zore · 6 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 6 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Zore · 5 games
20%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Yellow Flash · 5 games
80%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
solji · 4 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
solji · 4 games
25%

Team DogChamp

Bane
Bane
Bloody Nine · 16 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 12 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
StoneBank · 11 games
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
yarintheslayer · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 6 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
lukiluki · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
721 picks · 573 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
503 picks · 1021 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
493 picks · 654 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
479 picks · 813 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
374 picks · 421 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
331 picks · 163 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
326 picks · 392 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
304 picks · 584 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:38
Felt 44%Team DogChamp 56%
The model gave 56% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 42:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordparadise'
54% · 23 games49% · 17 games
AlchemistStoneBank
Alchemist
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsolji
54% · 9 games54% · 60 games
Death ProphetITALIANO GANGSTA
Death Prophet
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
53% · 56 gameslittle data
Primal Beastyarintheslayer
Primal Beast
Lich
LichShoe
27% · 11 games40% · 22 games
WarlockBloody Nine
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct25:27
Felt 47%Team DogChamp 53%
The model gave 53% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaparadise'
49% · 70 games56% · 87 games
JuggernautStoneBank
Juggernaut
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsolji
47% · 244 games48% · 299 games
MarsITALIANO GANGSTA
Mars
Batrider
BatriderFayde
55% · 127 games50% · 66 games
Zeusyarintheslayer
Zeus
Abaddon
AbaddonShoe
49% · 97 games46% · 86 games
UndyingBloody Nine
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 58%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2