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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LBZSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Invictus Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

LBZS

Tiny
Tiny
CatYou · 15 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 5 games
40%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 5 games
60%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Shanks · 5 games
40%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Shanks · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
725 picks · 573 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
504 picks · 1023 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
492 picks · 653 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
477 picks · 817 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 421 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
333 picks · 163 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
328 picks · 392 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
304 picks · 584 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total67% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:33
Invictus Gaming 67%LBZS 33%
The model gave 67% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LBZS in 50:02.
Game 2prediction missed28:38
Invictus Gaming 67%LBZS 33%
The model gave 67% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LBZS in 42:12.
Game 3prediction missed26:12
Invictus Gaming 67%LBZS 33%
The model gave 67% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LBZS in 41:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 67%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3