The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Soniqswin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Feltloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Felt
Weaveroften banned
Zore · 12 games
Tinysignature
AfrOmoush · 9 games
Axeoften banned
Zore · 6 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
solji · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Zore · 5 games
Huskaroften banned
Yellow Flash · 5 games
Rubick
AfrOmoush · 4 games
Sand King
Zore · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
729 picks · 571 bans
Puck
505 picks · 1023 bans
Dawnbreaker
489 picks · 649 bans
Marci
469 picks · 813 bans
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 420 bans
Snapfire
332 picks · 165 bans
Zeus
327 picks · 392 bans
Razor
303 picks · 585 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)17% vs 23%
Hero pool strength53% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Soniqs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:8
Soniqs 63%Felt 37%
The model gave 63% on Soniqs — the game was taken by Felt in 38:13.
Game 2prediction missed11:45
Soniqs 63%Felt 37%
The model gave 63% on Soniqs — the game was taken by Felt in 26:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteSoniqs · 63%
Series resultSoniqs 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2