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Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Empire Hopewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EZ KATKA

Tiny
Tiny
Lefitan · 9 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Lefitan · 7 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 7 games
43%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Rvze · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lukas · 6 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 6 games
33%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Wuiter · 5 games
60%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Lefitan · 5 games
20%

Team Empire Hope

Pudge
Pudgesignature
krylat · 8 games
88%
Io
Iosignature
antoha · 6 games
83%
Viper
Vipersignature
Mastery · 6 games
67%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
antoha · 6 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Mastery · 5 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
pJonn · 5 games
60%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
krylat · 4 games
50%
Dazzle
Dazzle
antoha · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
729 picks · 570 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
505 picks · 1022 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
488 picks · 648 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
468 picks · 812 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 420 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
332 picks · 164 bans
48%
Zeus
Zeus
327 picks · 392 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
303 picks · 584 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 65%
Hero pool strength60% Team Empire Hope
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Team Empire Hope
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:29
EZ KATKA 42%Team Empire Hope 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 44:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLukas
45% · 66 games53% · 75 games
Juggernautkrylat
Juggernaut
Batrider
BatriderRvze
57% · 61 game50% · 81 game
MarcipJonn
Marci
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBlizzy
55% · 25 games49% · 64 games
Undyingantoha
Undying
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLefitan
43% · 68 games
Game 2prediction correct28:37
EZ KATKA 44%Team Empire Hope 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 34:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkLukas
50% · 4 games47% · 37 games
Phantom Lancerkrylat
Phantom Lancer
Batrider
BatriderRvze
57% · 54 games53% · 109 games
Dragon KnightpJonn
Dragon Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBlizzy
58% · 85 games42% · 45 games
Vengeful Spiritantoha
Vengeful Spirit
Rubick
RubickLefitan
42% · 48 games
Game 3prediction correct34:31
EZ KATKA 41%Team Empire Hope 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 51:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLukas
48% · 63 games45% · 25 games
Pudgekrylat
Pudge
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendRvze
53% · 13 games52% · 56 games
VisagepJonn
Visage
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBlizzy
51% · 77 games49% · 105 games
Ioantoha
Io
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonLefitan
55% · 33 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire Hope · 64%
Series resultTeam Empire Hope 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3