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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rune Eatersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 23 games
39%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 22 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 16 games
56%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 15 games
47%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 15 games
20%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 55 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 45 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 41 game
46%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 36 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 33 games
39%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 31 game
58%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 31 game
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
674 picks · 846 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
575 picks · 582 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 426 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
479 picks · 334 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
418 picks · 1132 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 685 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
397 picks · 1027 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 619 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total62% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed50:16
VP.Prodigy 42%Rune Eaters 58%
The model gave 58% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 26:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingcutie
55% · 127 games44% · 126 games
Weaveryowaai
Weaver
Pangolier
Pangoliertakizawa
39% · 210 games53% · 359 games
BristlebackAnkou
Bristleback
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSerenada
53% · 154 games51% · 58 games
Death ProphetEthereal
Death Prophet
Marci
Marciraregods
55% · 147 games56% · 24 games
Ioani-san
Io
Jakiro
JakiroJANTER
51% · 339 games49% · 410 games
DisruptorKidaro
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct21:37
VP.Prodigy 43%Rune Eaters 57%
The model gave 57% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 35:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmastertakizawa
50% · 283 games49% · 237 games
Muertayowaai
Muerta
Bristleback
Bristlebackcutie
52% · 220 games50% · 219 games
Monkey KingEthereal
Monkey King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSerenada
50% · 189 games48% · 325 games
PangolierAnkou
Pangolier
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
52% · 285 games49% · 68 games
Rubickani-san
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixJANTER
51% · 165 games50% · 293 games
DisruptorKidaro
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed
VP.Prodigy 38%Rune Eaters 62%
The model gave 62% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 62%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3