The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Tempestloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hokoriwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
730 picks · 572 bans
Puck
507 picks · 1025 bans
Dawnbreaker
485 picks · 645 bans
Marci
460 picks · 807 bans
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 419 bans
Snapfire
334 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 391 bans
Razor
304 picks · 587 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Tempest
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total73% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:6
Tempest 27%Hokori 73%
The model gave 73% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 18:17.
Game 2prediction correct
Tempest 27%Hokori 73%
The model gave 73% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 73%
Series resultHokori 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2