The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mad Kingsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Mad Kings
Beastmastersignature
ArzenT · 14 games
Bloodseekersignature
Mnz · 14 games
Tinysignature
sl4d1n- · 12 games
Weaveroften banned
ArzenT · 12 games
Viperoften banned
drakeel · 11 games
Visagesignature
drakeel · 10 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Mjz · 9 games
Ogre Magi
Mjz · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
735 picks · 573 bans
Puck
509 picks · 1029 bans
Dawnbreaker
485 picks · 643 bans
Marci
458 picks · 802 bans
Winter Wyvern
376 picks · 418 bans
Snapfire
333 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 390 bans
Razor
308 picks · 589 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Mad Kings
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:28
Hokori 62%Mad Kings 38%
The model gave 62% on Hokori — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 39:05.
Game 2prediction missed30:14
Hokori 62%Mad Kings 38%
The model gave 62% on Hokori — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 31:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 62%
Series resultHokori 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2