The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Runesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
No Runes
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
736 picks · 570 bans
Puck
508 picks · 1032 bans
Dawnbreaker
485 picks · 641 bans
Marci
454 picks · 801 bans
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 417 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 390 bans
Razor
309 picks · 589 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:17
Hokori 75%No Runes 25%
The model gave 75% on Hokori — the game was taken by No Runes in 38:10.
Game 2prediction missed18:39
Hokori 75%No Runes 25%
The model gave 75% on Hokori — the game was taken by No Runes in 46:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 75%
Series resultHokori 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2