The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Mind Gamesloss 1:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 1:2
One Movewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
One Move
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 33 games
Storm Spiritsignature
mellojul · 30 games
Miranasignature
sayuw · 29 games
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 29 games
Banesignature
Panto · 22 games
Tiny
Smiling Knight · 18 games
Marssignature
AfterLife · 17 games
Undyingoften banned
Panto · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
739 picks · 569 bans
Puck
508 picks · 1035 bans
Dawnbreaker
485 picks · 640 bans
Marci
452 picks · 798 bans
Winter Wyvern
376 picks · 416 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 390 bans
Razor
308 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 56%
Hero pool strength62% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:24
Mind Games 18%One Move 82%
The model gave 82% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 41:19.
Game 2prediction correct36:16
Mind Games 18%One Move 82%
The model gave 82% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 42:23.
Game 3prediction correct25:15
Mind Games 18%One Move 82%
The model gave 82% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 49:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 82%
Series resultOne Move 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3