The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Wolf Teamloss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mad Kingswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
Mad Kings
Beastmastersignature
ArzenT · 13 games
Bloodseekersignature
Mnz · 13 games
Tinysignature
sl4d1n- · 12 games
Weaveroften banned
ArzenT · 12 games
Visagesignature
drakeel · 10 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Mjz · 9 games
Ogre Magi
Mjz · 9 games
Viperoften banned
drakeel · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
737 picks · 569 bans
Puck
510 picks · 1034 bans
Dawnbreaker
486 picks · 636 bans
Marci
452 picks · 798 bans
Winter Wyvern
376 picks · 415 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 165 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 387 bans
Razor
309 picks · 592 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:33
Wolf Team 48%Mad Kings 52%
The model gave 52% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 30:21.
Game 2prediction correct36:31
Wolf Team 48%Mad Kings 52%
The model gave 52% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 46:25.
Game 3prediction correct12:24
Wolf Team 48%Mad Kings 52%
The model gave 52% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 26:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 52%
Series resultMad Kings 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3