The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Kiritych · 11 games
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 9 games
Sand King
TheChosenOne · 9 games
Tiny
Kiritych · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
so bad · 8 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
so bad · 8 games
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 7 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
736 picks · 569 bans
Puck
511 picks · 1033 bans
Dawnbreaker
486 picks · 634 bans
Marci
450 picks · 794 bans
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 416 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 385 bans
Razor
310 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:8
Nemiga Gaming 58%PuckChamp 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 39:13.
Game 2prediction correct31:13
Nemiga Gaming 58%PuckChamp 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 58%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2