Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ITIllicit teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
Illicit team
Bloodseekeroften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
736 picks · 567 bans
Puck
511 picks · 1033 bans
Dawnbreaker
486 picks · 633 bans
Marci
450 picks · 793 bans
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 416 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 384 bans
Razor
310 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% MooN team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:24
MooN team 56%Illicit team 44%
The model gave 56% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 35:43.
Game 2prediction correct58:38
MooN team 56%Illicit team 44%
The model gave 56% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 41:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 56%
Series resultMooN team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2