The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mind Gamesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Marcisignature
yamich · 20 games
Tinysignature
yamich · 18 games
Doomoften banned
DM · 16 games
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 16 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 16 games
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 15 games
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
736 picks · 567 bans
Puck
511 picks · 1033 bans
Dawnbreaker
485 picks · 632 bans
Marci
446 picks · 792 bans
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 415 bans
Snapfire
337 picks · 162 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 384 bans
Razor
310 picks · 589 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 41%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total88% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:16
Virtus.pro 88%Mind Games 12%
The model gave 88% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 38:21.
Game 2prediction correct34:8
Virtus.pro 88%Mind Games 12%
The model gave 88% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 88%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2