European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Two Moveloss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Two Move
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 7 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Htrd · 7 games
Rubicksignature
queezy · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 6 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
Team Lynx
Hoodwink
QBFY · 39 games
Techies
kreker · 26 games
Dark Willow
QBFY · 24 games
Rubick
QBFY · 24 games
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 21 game
Pangolier
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Tidehunter
VladikTheHtiviy · 17 games
Slardarsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
489 picks · 295 bans
Dark Willow
373 picks · 166 bans
Mirana
363 picks · 161 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 482 bans
Centaur Warrunner
303 picks · 308 bans
Winter Wyvern
294 picks · 274 bans
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 476 bans
Undying
271 picks · 369 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength62% Two Move
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total67% Two Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:34
Two Move 60%Team Lynx 40%
The model gave 60% on Two Move — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 37:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenWoE
Tinyv1olent-
UnderlordBb3px
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
InvokerAinkrad
Vipermellojul
Keeper of the Lightqueezy
Pugnakreker
TechiesRein
HoodwinkQBFY
Game 2prediction missed15:24
Two Move 58%Team Lynx 42%
The model gave 58% on Two Move — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 38:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezWoE
Lunav1olent-
Outworld DestroyerAinkrad
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
BrewmasterBb3px
Storm Spiritmellojul
Windrangerqueezy
Winter Wyvernkreker
DazzleRein
HoodwinkQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteTwo Move · 67%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2