The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Wolf Teamwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qhaliloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
Qhali
Lycansignature
Hermit · 9 games
Doomsignature
MonHty · 6 games
Tiny
Hermit · 6 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Luis · 3 games
Mirana
MonHty · 3 games
Pugnaoften banned
Luis · 3 games
Silencer
Luis · 3 games
Visageoften banned
Hermit · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
735 picks · 566 bans
Puck
511 picks · 1031 bans
Dawnbreaker
483 picks · 632 bans
Marci
446 picks · 792 bans
Winter Wyvern
374 picks · 414 bans
Snapfire
337 picks · 162 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 383 bans
Razor
310 picks · 589 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Qhali
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Wolf Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:12
Wolf Team 67%Qhali 33%
The model gave 67% on Wolf Team — the game was taken by Qhali in 33:37.
Game 2prediction missed44:20
Wolf Team 67%Qhali 33%
The model gave 67% on Wolf Team — the game was taken by Qhali in 35:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteWolf Team · 67%
Series resultWolf Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2