The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
No Runeswin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balrogsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Runes
No games played over 6 months.
Balrogs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
733 picks · 566 bans
Puck
511 picks · 1030 bans
Dawnbreaker
482 picks · 634 bans
Marci
446 picks · 792 bans
Winter Wyvern
374 picks · 414 bans
Snapfire
337 picks · 161 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 383 bans
Razor
310 picks · 589 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% No Runes
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:33
No Runes 43%Balrogs 57%
The model gave 57% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 30:18.
Game 2prediction correct34:43
No Runes 43%Balrogs 57%
The model gave 57% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 1:06:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 57%
Series resultNo Runes 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2