The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravenswin 2:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dreamersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ravens
Monkey Kingsignature
DaaD- · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Cara · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Benjaz · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
Tiny
d1smar · 4 games
Bane
Cara · 3 games
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
731 picks · 568 bans
Puck
511 picks · 1032 bans
Dawnbreaker
482 picks · 633 bans
Marci
446 picks · 792 bans
Winter Wyvern
374 picks · 413 bans
Snapfire
336 picks · 161 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 383 bans
Razor
310 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Ravens
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total63% Ravens
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:19
Ravens 63%Dreamers 37%
The model gave 63% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 39:26.
Game 2prediction correct33:13
Ravens 63%Dreamers 37%
The model gave 63% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 29:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteRavens · 63%
Series resultRavens 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2