The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
cybercatsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
cybercats
Hoodwink
Fezor · 34 games
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 18 games
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 18 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 18 games
Visagesignature
DkFogas · 17 games
Dazzlesignature
Hduo · 16 games
Doomsignature
Fezor · 16 games
Jakiro
Hduo · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
728 picks · 569 bans
Puck
512 picks · 1032 bans
Dawnbreaker
482 picks · 633 bans
Marci
442 picks · 789 bans
Winter Wyvern
374 picks · 414 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
327 picks · 381 bans
Razor
310 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 66%
Hero pool strength55% cybercats
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total51% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:36
HellRaisers 49%cybercats 51%
The model gave 51% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 54:07.
Game 2prediction correct17:23
HellRaisers 49%cybercats 51%
The model gave 51% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 28:35.
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 51%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2