The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PARI PARNIloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARI PARNI
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Kiritych · 10 games
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 9 games
Sand King
TheChosenOne · 9 games
Tiny
Kiritych · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
so bad · 8 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
so bad · 8 games
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
728 picks · 569 bans
Puck
511 picks · 1031 bans
Dawnbreaker
480 picks · 631 bans
Marci
441 picks · 787 bans
Winter Wyvern
373 picks · 414 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
327 picks · 381 bans
Razor
310 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% PARI PARNI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:26
PARI PARNI 34%Nemiga Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 48:04.
Game 2prediction correct25:7
PARI PARNI 34%Nemiga Gaming 66%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 24:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 66%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2