The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tempestwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
Snapfiresignature
Hyko · 11 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Nuages · 10 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
Nuages · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Cys · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
mini-` · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
Jupiter · 5 games
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
727 picks · 569 bans
Puck
511 picks · 1029 bans
Dawnbreaker
479 picks · 630 bans
Marci
441 picks · 787 bans
Winter Wyvern
373 picks · 414 bans
Snapfire
335 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
327 picks · 381 bans
Razor
310 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:36
Infinity Esports 50%Tempest 50%
The model gave 50% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Tempest in 1:04:12.
Game 2prediction missed56:17
Infinity Esports 50%Tempest 50%
The model gave 50% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Tempest in 39:52.
Game 3prediction missed46:21
Infinity Esports 50%Tempest 50%
The model gave 50% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Tempest in 35:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 50%
Series resultTempest 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3