Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionITIllicit teamloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EZ KATKAwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Illicit team
Bloodseekeroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Weaveroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
EZ KATKA
Tiny
Lefitan · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lukas · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 6 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Wuiter · 5 games
Marcioften banned
Lefitan · 5 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
726 picks · 569 bans
Puck
512 picks · 1027 bans
Dawnbreaker
479 picks · 629 bans
Marci
441 picks · 785 bans
Winter Wyvern
372 picks · 412 bans
Snapfire
338 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
327 picks · 380 bans
Razor
311 picks · 591 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Illicit team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% EZ KATKA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:28
Illicit team 52%EZ KATKA 48%
The model gave 52% on Illicit team — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerStoneBank
BristlebackLukas
45% · 7 games
Outworld DestroyerRvze
41% · 37 games
Death ProphetWuiter
48% · 36 games
DawnbreakerLefitan
Game 2prediction correct18:50
Illicit team 48%EZ KATKA 52%
The model gave 52% on EZ KATKA — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerStoneBank
Faceless VoidLukas
55% · 18 games
Queen of PainRvze
60% · 11 games
UndyingWuiter
little data
Shadow FiendLefitan
Model check result
Model favoriteEZ KATKA · 52%
Series resultEZ KATKA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2