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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HellRaisersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Solo · 12 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
No[o]ne · 12 games
42%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 12 games
75%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 11 games
45%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
V-Tune · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Solo · 8 games
50%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
726 picks · 569 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
511 picks · 1026 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
479 picks · 629 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
441 picks · 782 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 412 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
338 picks · 163 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
327 picks · 380 bans
47%
Razor
Razor
311 picks · 591 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 69%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:26
Natus Vincere 39%HellRaisers 61%
The model gave 61% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 27:53.
Game 2prediction missed21:9
Natus Vincere 39%HellRaisers 61%
The model gave 61% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:34.
Game 3prediction missed28:36
Natus Vincere 39%HellRaisers 61%
The model gave 61% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:06:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 61%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3