Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HFwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MooN teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
Iosignature
Kaori · 10 games
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
727 picks · 568 bans
Puck
511 picks · 1029 bans
Dawnbreaker
480 picks · 629 bans
Marci
441 picks · 782 bans
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 412 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
327 picks · 380 bans
Razor
311 picks · 592 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% HF
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total51% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:35
HF 51%MooN team 49%
The model gave 51% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 33:03.
Game 2prediction correct26:40
HF 51%MooN team 49%
The model gave 51% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 52:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 51%
Series resultHF 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2