The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mind Gameswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
727 picks · 568 bans
Puck
511 picks · 1029 bans
Dawnbreaker
480 picks · 629 bans
Marci
439 picks · 782 bans
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 412 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
327 picks · 380 bans
Razor
311 picks · 592 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% PuckChamp
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total64% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:37
PuckChamp 64%Mind Games 36%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Mind Games in 46:21.
Game 2prediction missed11:38
PuckChamp 64%Mind Games 36%
The model gave 64% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Mind Games in 43:45.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 64%
Series resultMind Games 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2