The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
X3win 1:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
Bane
antoha · 20 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Shergarat · 15 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 15 games
Tiny
velheor · 15 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
nesfeer · 13 games
Zeussignature
velheor · 13 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
727 picks · 568 bans
Puck
511 picks · 1026 bans
Dawnbreaker
478 picks · 628 bans
Marci
438 picks · 781 bans
Winter Wyvern
367 picks · 412 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
326 picks · 380 bans
Razor
310 picks · 592 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% X3
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:6
X3 40%Team Unique 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Unique — the game was taken by X3 in 29:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 60%
Series resultX3 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1