Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamloss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EZ KATKAwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
EZ KATKA
Tiny
Lefitan · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 5 games
Marcioften banned
Lefitan · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lukas · 5 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 5 games
Pudge
Lukas · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
727 picks · 566 bans
Puck
514 picks · 1028 bans
Dawnbreaker
476 picks · 625 bans
Marci
438 picks · 780 bans
Winter Wyvern
367 picks · 410 bans
Snapfire
342 picks · 163 bans
Zeus
326 picks · 379 bans
Razor
310 picks · 595 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% MooN team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:39
MooN team 59%EZ KATKA 41%
The model gave 59% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 1:09:31.
Game 2prediction missed16:33
MooN team 59%EZ KATKA 41%
The model gave 59% on MooN team — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 36:07.
Game 3prediction missed49:46
MooN team 59%EZ KATKA 41%
The model gave 59% on MooN team — the game was taken by EZ KATKA in 57:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 59%
Series resultEZ KATKA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3