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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 28 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 23 games
39%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 23 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
fy · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 22 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 21 game
52%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 21 game
76%

PARIVISION

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 20 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 18 games
56%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
No[o]ne · 18 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 17 games
41%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
677 picks · 853 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
577 picks · 592 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 429 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
483 picks · 335 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
422 picks · 1128 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 691 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
401 picks · 1028 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 622 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 49%
Hero pool strength50% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total50% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed1:22
Xtreme Gaming 50%PARIVISION 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 22:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAme
49% · 226 games53% · 208 games
Monkey KingSatanic
Monkey King
Leshrac
LeshracNothingToSay
56% · 178 games44% · 265 games
PangolierNo[o]ne
Pangolier
Largo
LargoXxs
60% · 43 games45% · 260 games
SlardarSSS
Slardar
Tusk
Tuskfy
48% · 397 games50% · 55 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Dazzle
DazzlexNova
51% · 89 games50% · 145 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct23:27
Xtreme Gaming 54%PARIVISION 46%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 47:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverAme
57% · 79 games45% · 95 games
Monkey KingSatanic
Monkey King
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
55% · 192 games46% · 205 games
BeastmasterSSS
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarXxs
56% · 205 games43% · 192 games
PangolierNo[o]ne
Pangolier
Rubick
Rubickfy
49% · 55 games51% · 63 games
Keeper of the Light9Class
Keeper of the Light
Venomancer
VenomancerxNova
55% · 35 games37% · 11 games
LichDukalis
Lich
Game 3prediction correct27:13
Xtreme Gaming 51%PARIVISION 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 33:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
56% · 134 games59% · 108 games
Naga SirenSatanic
Naga Siren
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
54% · 136 games53% · 165 games
UnderlordSSS
Underlord
Mars
MarsXxs
48% · 258 games44% · 303 games
PangolierNo[o]ne
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaxNova
58% · 22 games41% · 85 games
WeaverDukalis
Weaver
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonfy
53% · 259 games38% · 148 games
Dark Willow9Class
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 50%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3