ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Jakirosignature
Malady · 46 games
Tusksignature
Malady · 39 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 34 games
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 31 game
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
Tinysignature
Saksa · 25 games
Ursasignature
Watson · 24 games
Tundra Esports
Batridersignature
Ari · 44 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 32 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 32 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
Timbersawsignature
33 · 27 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 26 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 26 games
Axesignature
33 · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
677 picks · 851 bans
Tiny
576 picks · 592 bans
Tusk
498 picks · 429 bans
Warlock
483 picks · 335 bans
Shadow Demon
422 picks · 1126 bans
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 691 bans
Shadow Fiend
401 picks · 1028 bans
Mars
394 picks · 622 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Team Yandex
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:34
Team Yandex 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyWatson
Dragon KnightPure~
BristlebackNoticed
Ember Spiritbzm
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Largo33
Keeper of the LightSaksa
PhoenixWhitemon
IoMalady
TuskAri
Game 2prediction correct7:26
Team Yandex 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaWatson
GyrocopterPure~
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
Pangolierbzm
BatriderNoticed
Doom33
Ogre MagiMalady
PhoenixWhitemon
LionSaksa
TuskAri
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2