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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Kaori · 55 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 48 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 46 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 44 games
75%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 43 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 37 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 32 games
75%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 31 game
61%

PARIVISION

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 19 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 18 games
56%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
No[o]ne · 18 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 17 games
41%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
678 picks · 855 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
580 picks · 595 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
499 picks · 431 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
484 picks · 336 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
425 picks · 1127 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 696 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
403 picks · 1030 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 625 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total69% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:43
Aurora Gaming 61%PARIVISION 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 45:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNightfall
51% · 305 games47% · 670 games
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
49% · 201 game51% · 241 game
Monkey KingSatanic
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
51% · 355 games51% · 440 games
PangolierSSS
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderMira
55% · 276 games47% · 194 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
46% · 437 games58% · 29 games
Io9Class
Io
Game 2prediction missed12:44
Aurora Gaming 59%PARIVISION 41%
The model gave 59% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNightfall
46% · 259 games52% · 426 games
PangolierNo[o]ne
Pangolier
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
43% · 182 games55% · 172 games
WeaverSatanic
Weaver
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWs
47% · 105 games58% · 289 games
UnderlordSSS
Underlord
Warlock
WarlockKaori
48% · 250 games51% · 200 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskMira
48% · 379 games51% · 88 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 69%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2