Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MooN teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
YNT
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 8 games
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 8 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 6 games
Bane
dSa · 5 games
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
725 picks · 564 bans
Puck
516 picks · 1028 bans
Dawnbreaker
472 picks · 626 bans
Marci
435 picks · 779 bans
Winter Wyvern
367 picks · 409 bans
Snapfire
343 picks · 162 bans
Zeus
326 picks · 379 bans
Razor
311 picks · 597 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% MooN team
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total64% YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:21
YNT 64%MooN team 36%
The model gave 64% on YNT — the game was taken by MooN team in 34:29.
Game 2prediction missed31:42
YNT 64%MooN team 36%
The model gave 64% on YNT — the game was taken by MooN team in 47:19.
Game 3prediction missed26:6
YNT 64%MooN team 36%
The model gave 64% on YNT — the game was taken by MooN team in 21:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteYNT · 64%
Series resultMooN team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3